General Background
Violent conflicts in the border areas between Kenya and Ethiopia are shaped by the realities that define subsistence rural livelihoods.For example, climate change has led to rising temperatures and higher frequency and intensity of droughts that have changed the vegetation in the rangelands, forcing pastoralists to move further to find food and water for cattle.In addition, conflicts over land rights and access occur between private businesses, local governments, and different ethnic groups. In all cases, violent conflict erodes the positive social capital that holds communities together and pushes vulnerable and already marginalized people to migrate to locations they believe can allow them to attain secure livelihoods and alternative options for a stable, prosperous life. Funded by the European Union Trust Fund for Africa, the Selam Ekisil (SEEK) project adopts a conflict systems based approach to address the multiple causes of conflict in cross border areas and to promote peace building, conflict management, and conflict resolution capacity at the community and cross border levels. It is part of the EU’s program for Collaboration in the Cross Border areas of the Horn of Africa, providing over 60 million euros of investment to prevent and mitigate the impact of local conflict and to promote economic development and greater resilience in four different cross border regions. Ultimately, the prevalence and severity of conflict are shaped by the effectiveness of informal and formal institutional structures and forces that manage differences between groups. The three-year project will address drivers of conflict, insecurity, and instability, while strengthening the systems and institutions that peacefully manage and resolve conflict on the border of Southwest Ethiopia and Northwest Kenya. It is against this backdrop that Pact will carry out a broad Political Economy Analysis (PEA) of the peace architecture across the cross-border area to inform overall Action direction and serve as the basis of overall activity design. The PEA will be structured to elucidate power dynamics, values and ideas that shape actors’ behaviors, and the relationships, interests and incentives. It will consider how actors interact with each other as a whole system and will consider relationships between different layers of peace structures. The PEA also will incorporate conflict analysis to capture and map local drivers of conflict and to provide an overview of the status of EWER and other peace architectures.
Key Question
What are the barriers and opportunities of Government and Non-Government Actors to engage effectively to prevent local conflict and/or mitigate its impact that will lead to sustainable peace and perceived improved quality of life? Specific Background
In order to contribute to the prevention of local conflicts in the cross-border areas, mitigating the impact of conflicts and strengthening the broader institutional systems for conflict prevention, response, management and potentially resolution, and as part of the inception phase of the project, Pact will conduct a Political Economy Analysis (PEA) to inform the project and the Consortium strategy and intervention plan in the conflict prevention, management, and resolution (CPMR) sector for the coming three years of programming.
Scope of Work
This ToR is to manage the delivery of a Political Economy Analysis (PEA) in South-Omo-Turkana cluster, to provide an understanding of the contexts and conditions for the Government, civil society and other conflict management actors to improve performance in conflict management. The assignment consists of the following aspects:
Develop an appropriate PEA methodology and APEA framework through a participatory workshop with the South-Omo team and partners. The methodology and exact questions to be answered by the political economy analysis will develop over the course of the workshop as the teams and the consultant consider their initial analysis. The teams will be prepared to identify and explore emerging political economy questions as the research is carried out.
Demonstrate and support the development of the teams to interview and collect data through an experiential learning process that develops their skills and guides the teams to undertake field work to inform the final analysis.
Collate and analyse the findings
Write up the reportThe Lead Analyst will guide the team during the collection of data and interviews. The aim of the PEAs is to provide an understanding and analysis of the political and economic constraints and opportunities for change in the CPMR system, leading to a set of specific recommendations and that can be turned into operational delivery objectives as part of Pact’s programme strategy. The specific objectives of the PEA are to understand:
What the dynamics and incentives are of the government, institutions, civil society, business sector and other stakeholders (the drivers of change) that can support the emergence of a more effective conflict management system. Consideration should also be given to the capability of these actors and drivers for change;
How interests and incentives can be combined to create levers of change that provide opportunities for Pact interventions, or when these interests may resist change such that an intervention is unlikely to be feasible;
Who are the current main “winners” and “losers” in this arena, and what are the implications for Pacts programme in these areas that will support strengthened conflict management and stability, and stakeholder efforts to address drivers of conflict;
Understand how the formal and informal policy arenas and ways of doing business shape success or failure in the management of conflict;
How investment and future government and stakeholder development plans may affect the system and potentially create losers amongst poor people or encourage drivers of migration.
Deliverables
An approach and methodology and work plan for conducting this PEA. The work plan will include indicative activities, per phases (desk research, consultation/meetings, analysis, report drafting and finalisation).
A presentation of findings to Pact Consortium. Half day meeting/workshop with power point.
A final report on the political economy of the CPMR and conflict stakeholders (including the business sector). The report structure will be agreed with the Pact team before completion. The report shall contain, at least:
The methodology and approach developed by the teams;
A final political analysis of the CPMR sectors in the cluster area, outlining the key issues in the political economy as they impact on conflict-affected communities, the peacebuilding institutions and the potential for Pact and partners to work with stakeholders – including private sector companies as levers of change to promote stability and social cohesion. These should include:
Roles and responsibilities of different actors: who are the key stakeholders in the clusters and what are their functions in CPMR sector?
The ‘peace ecosystem structure’: what are the relationships and balance between the key stakeholders and institutions such as government departments, peace structures, traditional leaders, large companies, small-scale enterprises, and individuals?
What are the Government policies, regulations and institutional arrangements on both sides of the relevant borders that affect the CPMR sector?
Power relations: to what extent is power vested in the hands of specific stakeholders, companies and/or individuals? How do different interest groups, including government influence the sector and conflict dynamics and how it functions? Are certain groups/ethnicities/gender groups excluded from playing positive roles in peacebuilding?
Historical legacies: what is the past history that affects CPMR, including government and the business sector actions? How does this influence current stakeholder perceptions and incentives?
Local issues: what are the sensitive issues such as land rights, business practices, sources of conflict and environmental and cultural sensitivities in these clusters?
What are the dominant ’rules of the game’ both formal and informal which shape behaviours and views on conflict and its management? To what extent may these serve to constrain change?
Corruption and rent-seeking: is there significant corruption and rent-seeking that affects the sector? Who benefits most from this? How is patronage being used?
A set of specific and actionable recommendations for Pact and consortium members to consider in its strategy.
Skills and Expertise Required
5+ years’ expertise in the functioning of public sector institutional structures, organizational behavior and incentives mapping and theory e.g. principal-agent problems;
5+ years’ expertise of applied political economy analysis and the use of various methodologies, as well as the application of analysis to develop recommendations for development programming;
5+ years of experience working in research and analysis in Horn of Africa, and ability to demonstrate knowledge of the region’s/country’s culture and social norms;
Expertise in the functioning of informal networks and drivers of decision-making;
Proven ability to tap into informal networks, obtain information, triangulate it, assess its reliability;
Work in the humanitarian sector is an added advantage.Evaluation Criteria ​Applicants are requested to submit CV’s no later than February 15th, with a cost estimate to fulfill the deliverables above within the assigned dates of assignment. An applicant will be selected based on best value (combination of qualifications, price, and ability to meet timeline).
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