Job Purpose
The purpose of the role is to lead & drive the Demand Forecasting process to support the core commercial cycle (CCC) & supply chain operating model.
Build the business demand forecast in line with commercial expectations challenging the inputs based on historical trends & underlying assumptions.
Drive sustainable maturity levels of Demand review meetings (DRM)to support the business.
Manage the Forecasting process to support East & West Africa commercial Ambitions and deliver the Forecasting KPIs related to accuracy and Bias.
Management of Demand Planning systems (Power BI, JDE/SAP, ModCF) to ensure that data integrity and flow into supply systems is maintained
Manage flow of information between Demand and Supply, Demand and Sales, and Demand and Finance
Key Responsibilities
Manage end to end Demand forecasting volume & value for EWA business unit to improve sales forecast accuracy & bias.
Quarterly generation of baseline statistical forecast using the APO system to support the monthly Sales & Operation Planning process according to defined deadlines.
Quarterly generation of statistical forecasting, depletion with available data and sales history cleaning (outliers) with the CCC core team.
Brand wise review & classification of demand & trends analysis for EWA markets
Report KPI’s & conduct detailed root cause analysis and corrective action planning to understand sales forecast errors and bias performance KPI’s.
Provide the detailed analysis of forecast trends and accuracy for local PRE-Demand/Demand review process.
Develop a rolling 36 month forecast that ensures the business runs off an aligned, agreed and common set of numbers. Current Year/Current Year +1 & Current Year +2
Lead and facilitate the consensus Pre-DRM & Demand Review Meeting (DRM) for the consolidated East & West Africa market.
Interface with relevant category supply planners & other supply parties to provide input to the weekly demand control process.
Provide detailed and timely analysis of historical trend and business performance as input to the Consensus Forecast Review process.
Develop reports and presentations (Building blocks, charts, tables etc.) detailing past performance and predicted future outlook to support forecasting process and aid management in taking strategic business decisions.
Perform SAP MODCF / APO / SNP system administration including new product setup, forecast data entry and validation.
Coordinate with key stakeholders & commercial team to align orders with supply planners and place same in the ERP Systems (ESC, JDE,Export etc.) for East Africa & West Africa markets.
Coordinate with commercial team, Finance, Supply Planning, logistics and export teams to ensure all orders are supplied and recorded as Sales in the system.
Collaborate with core commercial team members & Central support team to resolve all issues relating to price setup, new SKU setup, new customer setup, MyPSR and all other related system issues
Take ownership & Update all forecasting magic sheets / tools / files in preparation of forecasting cycles & meetings.
Compute Forecast Accuracy, Bias, SKU count and all other KPIs and uploads same in team sites and required systems on time.
Prepare meeting decks, slide presentations in readiness for Demand Review meetings
Participate in the weekly demand & supply reviews with supply planners
Collaborate with commercial teams to close gaps if required.
Accountability
Provision of timely, detailed, accurate, transparent forecast reporting.
Provide SAP MODCF / APO / SNP / ESC / JDE data maintenance and system administration.
Own and maintain forecasting tools.
Owner of online platform for sharing demand forecasting information, tools & resources.
Support the EWA GM to take forecast decisions & sign off the DRM numbers.
Contribute to the SLOBS process to ensure minimal write off on obsolete & slow movers actions.
Participate in the weekly NPI calls & PMR calls & support the phasing in & phase out activities.
Complexity
Reporting and analytical support for forecasting SKUs across
All countries/markets within the region
Incorporate Export markets appropriately
Detailed forecast reporting across all forecast drivers:
Statistical Baseline forecast
Promotional forecast/uplifts
New Product Introductions forecasts
System expert for SAP MODCF / APO / SNP
Ad hoc detailed forecast analysis
Specialized Skills And Knowledge
Advanced level of Excel skills required.
High attention to detail.
Highly numerate with knowledge of supply chain forecasting / trade spend, ERP systems and processes preferred.
Exposure to Demand forecasting and commercial sales / marketing operations in an FMCG environment.
Qualification in Commerce & Marketing / Accounting/Business / supply chain related discipline, logistics, supply management, demand management, operational management desirable.
Strong planning ability & able to work on own initiative.
Strong interpersonal skills to influence the relevant stakeholders across the business functions.
Proactively seeks opportunities to increase value by raising standards & championing best practices.
